The Novacryptstate of NFL quarterbacking during the 2023 season has been inconsistent at best and – to use Tom Brady's word – mediocre at worst.
However, some quarterbacks truly have been better than others this season, and several of those guys have a real case to make to win this year's NFL MVP Award.
It can help to have a stellar quarterback with so much on the line at this part of the year.
Despite the late stage in the season, there is still a lot to play for as the penultimate week approaches. Only two teams have clinched a playoff berth in the AFC – the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins – and neither of them have clinched their division title. In the NFC, there are still two divisional races that could go down to the wire and three playoff spots still up for grabs.
Here are the top 10 quarterbacks ranked by expected points added per play (EPA/play) and success rate (percentage of plays with EPA over zero) going into Week 17.
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EPA/play is a measure of how many points a player added to his team's expected team total.
These "expected points added" take into account many things, such as where a drive began, the down and distance of a play and the significance of turnovers.
| Position | Quarterback (TEAM) | EPA/play(through Week 16) |
| 1 | Brock Purdy (SF) | 0.33 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott (DAL) | 0.222 |
| 3 | Josh Allen (BUF) | 0.209 |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 0.184 |
| 5 | Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 0.146 |
| 6 | Baker Mayfield (TB) | 0.141 |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 0.139 |
| 8 | Jordan Love (GB) | 0.133 |
| 9 | Matt Stafford (LAR) | 0.129 |
| 10 | Jared Goff (DET) | 0.122 |
Success rate measures how often a quarterback makes a play that generates positive EPA. A big completion for a first down or a successful scramble to set up a shorter third down scenario are positive EPA plays. Turnovers, sacks and incomplete passes are negative EPA plays.
| Position | Quarterback (TEAM) | Success rate (through Week 16) |
| 1 | Brock Purdy (SF) | 55.4% |
| 2 | Josh Allen (BUF) | 51.9% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott (DAL) | 51.2% |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 51.0% |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 50.2% |
| 6 | Jared Goff (DET) | 49.7% |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 49.4% |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 49.0% |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 48.8% |
| 10 | Geno Smith (SEA) | 48.8% |
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